The age of big, complex and global supply chains is drawing to an end. Three emerging and converging technology revolutions: 3D printing, intelligent robotics and open source electronics are driving significant industry changes, impacting enterprises as well as governments.
3D
printing
The first and most
important revolution is 3D printing, also known as additive manufacturing. 3D
printing uses technology similar to laser and inkjet printing to deposit layers
of material on top of each other to build solid objects, a layer at a time. The
technology has matured rapidly over the last two decades to the point where it
is cheap enough for some consumers to buy their own printers. It frees
companies from the need to build standardized parts and pursue economies of
scale. To make the same size part, the time and cost is the same for one as for a thousand
copies of one part. 3D printers also eliminate the need for the costly and
time-consuming creation of molds, enabling the step directly from a design to a
part.
High-resolution desktop 3D
printers are priced at about US$3000 today.
The decrease in cost and size of 3D printers, along with
improved accuracy and strength make it viable for makers
and manufacturers to have more efficient design, lighter products and shorter
product design cycles.
Not
all materials can be 3D printed, however, about 30 industrial plastics, resins,
metals and bio-materials are now supported, with conductive, dielectric
materials and green polymers expected to be printable in ten years.
Stockless
inventory models will result in smarter supply chains and lower risk in
manufacturing. 3D printing will enable product customization to personal and
demographic needs as retail models emerge, which engage the consumer in the
product design process. Supply
chains will also become more location elastic, as a result, bringing manufacturing
closer to consumer.Transportation
of fewer finished goods will alter global trade flows and the logistics
industry, fundamentally transforming the
principles of global mass production.
3D
printing technology is already widespread in prototyping and specialized
production applications like aerospace and jewelry. As costs fall, it is expected
to transition into broad manufacturing. 3D printing costs are expected to fall
by 79 percent over the next five years – and by 92 percent over the next
decade, making it more cost-effective than all except the largest comparable production
processes.
Intelligent
robotics
The second expected technology
revolution is within intelligent robotics. In the last decade, a new
and more flexible generation of robots has been integrated into production
lines and adapted to new products. These systems can intelligently pick up
items and place them correctly, adapt to variable rates of production flow and
pick out correct items using machine vision. However, flexible robotics systems
are still costly, taking weeks or months to design and configure for each step
in the process, and costing US$200,000 or more per manufacturing cell.
The newest generation
of robots has emerged in the last few years, and can be deployed for as little
as US$25,000 each. They
are also even more sophisticated than previous robot generations. They
understand concepts such as production lines and they can be assigned to tasks
without programming and designed to work safely with people in a manufacturing
environment.
For manufacturers,
the availability of cheaper robotics systems eases the search for low-cost
assembly labor. Robotics will not replace all skilled labor, however, it allows
for simple assembly operations at very low cost. This frees companies from
excessively long supply chains and makes it possible to assemble products from
components without transporting them to third parties for integration purposes.
Industrial
robot sales have started to rise in recent years as costs have decreased and their
capabilities have matured. Between 2009 and 2011, an International Federation
of Robotics study found that their use in the Electronics industry rose from 18
to 23 percent. Improvements in robotic capabilities over time will continue to
increase their usefulness, including: adaptive and reconfigurable assembly,
safety, dexterous manipulation, correct-by-design manufacturing, unstructured
environments and nano-manufacturing.
Open
source electronics
Over the last decade,
consumers and enterprises have become more comfortable with open source software. The
purpose of embedded chips is to simplify products. Now, it is cheaper and
faster to put a fully-integrated computer on every manufactured device than it
is to develop a specialized, embedded chip.
Consumers have
embraced these system-on-a-chip platforms to create open source hardware
designs that add intelligence to devices, many of which can be produced by using 3D printers. Companies and individuals are publishing open
source hardware designs using standardized components and developing open
source software platforms that replicate system functionality. Whereas just a few years ago, consumers were sharing just
20 to 50 new open source product designs every month, today, there are more
than 30,000 new designs every month.
For companies, the
rise of open source electronics presents a dual opportunity. Running on a
flexible platform translates to faster design cycle time. It also means that the
marginal cost of adding significant intelligence to products is now almost zero. Open
source electronics will bring the power and flexibility of complex control
systems to a wide range of device types.
Of these three
anticipated trends, which do you think will be the most impactful over the next
century and beyond, and why?
Sources
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